Global Militaries Worry Elon Musk Is Too Erratic To Manage Starlink Competently

from the not-exactly-trustworthy dept

While Elon Musk’s Starlink low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband technology is too expensive and capacity-constrained to seriously put a dent in US broadband problems, it’s helpful in low connectivity situations like disasters, select parts of rural America, or the war in Ukraine. But Musk’s growing power over the fledgling LEO satellite sector has started to worry global military leaders, according to the New York Times.

Especially after an incident last year where Musk restricted Ukraine’s access to the service near Crimea because he personally opposed Ukraine’s military aims:

In Ukraine, some fears have been realized. Mr. Musk has restricted Starlink access multiple times during the war, people familiar with the situation said. At one point, he denied the Ukrainian military’s request to turn on Starlink near Crimea, the Russian-controlled territory, affecting battlefield strategy. Last year, he publicly floated a “peace plan” for the war that seemed aligned with Russian interests.

Musk’s mythology is so outsized, even global military leaders are worried about expressing their concerns that his increasingly-erratic behavior (and ties to countries like China) could impact global connectivity and national security, lest they upset the petulant billionaire:

At least nine countries — including in Europe and the Middle East — have also brought up Starlink with American officials over the past 18 months, with some questioning Mr. Musk’s power over the technology, two U.S. intelligence officials briefed on the discussions said. Few nations will speak publicly about their concerns, for fear of alienating Mr. Musk, said intelligence and cybersecurity officials briefed on the conversations.

In short, imagine the kind of petty, incoherent, counterproductive bumbling that reflects Musk’s management of ex-Twitter, and apply it to a global communications resource increasingly being used for sensitive military endeavors, aid work, and disaster relief.

In some ways the New York Times oversells Starlink’s importance. While slowly growing, the network has unavoidably struggled with speed issues due to the nature of satellite physics. Like Tesla Solar, Starlink customer service is a mess that’s also struggled to scale. There’s that whole undermining scientific research through light pollution thing. It’s also not particularly profitable, relying on the heavy subsidization of Space X to function as a concept.

Personally intervening in military conflicts while spewing right wing tween 4chan memes on a social media platform you’ve made increasingly friendly to CSAM probably isn’t the best strategy to keep this particular gravy train afloat.

Like Tesla Motors, Starlink also has a growing parade of well-funded competitors (like Amazon) looking to enter the space. And all of their lobbyists are surely licking their chops at the idea of using Musk’s erratic behavior and (tendency for self-immolation) as a reason why global organizations and governments should consider switching to less…dramatic communications alternatives.

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Companies: spacex, starlink

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Comments on “Global Militaries Worry Elon Musk Is Too Erratic To Manage Starlink Competently”

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Anonymous Coward says:

There’s nothing erratic about Elon’s behavior here.

He sucks up to dictators and authoritarians of ALL stripes, and was the privileged child of apartheid.

I know I should not judge a man by the company he keeps, but the fuck HAS written a puff piece for China…

James Burkhardt (profile) says:

Re:

If by nothing else than sheer weight of turnover, Musk has cultivated teams of experts. The repeated story we’d already gotten is that most of the good stuff coming out of Musk’s companies is from those teams of competent experts, and the whip is the majority of what Musk contributes.

Starlink however has inherent fiscal issues. Namely, its projections assume they can capture a significant fraction of the global internet market, but costs limit its value to the majority of potential users who don’t have an inherently better terrestrial service. Musks famed lack of quality control has lead to starlink sats failing at higher than expected rates, increasing upkeep costs beyond projections. So revenue likely will never meet projections that justify the expense, and expenses are higher than projected, so those revenue projections might never justify the higher actual expenses, let alone the lower actual revenue.

This is the problem that bankrupted SolarCity (much higher maintenance costs and reduced revenue both from defaults and equipment lease credits as mounting issues with broken installations resulted in non-functional installations). Its not just an Elon issue. Its a fundamental refusal to build reasonable assessments of the cost of things going wrong. The entire business is built on a rosey estimate.

Anonymous Coward says:

Re: Re:

Looking at Jonathan McDowell statistics for Starlink, it’s failure rate is not super dramatic so as to change the profitability calculation. Of the total 4881 launched 341 have deorbited and another 32 are on the way down. Of those deorbited only 123 were early failures, most of the rest were brought down intentionally.
You can view the detailed information here:
https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html

Stephen T. Stone (profile) says:

Re:

Will he rename it “SkyNet”?

No, it’ll probably be “Xtarlink” or “Starlinx” or something that works an X in there because he is obsessed with that one letter (to the point where his renaming Twitter and trying to turn it into the “everything app” is a direct potshot at Peter Thiel for something that happened two decades ago).

Anonymous Coward says:

Low Earth orbit sat com with mega constellations is a new market and as such is going through its first mover advantage phase. Apart from Starlink, currently there’s only one option – OneWeb (ironically, partially launched on SpaceX rockets because of the war), and they’re much worse in terms of network capacity. Amazon is expected to launch its first experimental batch of sats this September, however there’s little hope of them providing service at scale in 2024, probably no profitability until BlueOrigin (another Bezos’ company) figures out reuse of its upcoming rocket, which will take a few years after its first flight. SpaceX at this point at least has that going for it, their marginal per flight costs are somewhere near $20-25m, and from now on they’ll only be launching gen2 sats that provide x4 capacity of the old ones. So, yeah, for now we’re stuck with Musk. Good news is, he’s willing to sign contracts with the US DOD, which should be good enough for nation critical purposes.
Oh, and i also wouldn’t worry too much about potential debris from Starlink, its low enough for almost all the potential pieces to reenter within 3-5 years.

Anonymous Coward says:

Re:

No need to.
The US Space Force’s Space Development Agency works on something similar for military purposes:
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/04/space-development-agency-readies-first-solicitation-for-global-data-constellation/
SpaceX offers a version of their Starlink sats to do similar things under the name Starshield.
And recently the DoD simply purchased a batch of Starlink terminals that has no geofencing controlled by the company.
In short, i’ll harm the “investment climate” way more than it’ll do any good, remember, this project has more than one investor.

bengreene (profile) says:

Re: Quicker to list what shouldn't go wrong?

Having a tantrum throwing, spiteful and petulant, egotistical toddler in a suit cosplay as an international diplomat, spew gasoline on an international conflict, then flounce off in a sulk while blaming the Libs / Woke Mafia / victims of war crimes for their failure to simply do as he demands in conplete contradiction to anything that is in their best interests

I’d like to think it is a far-fetched possibility but Elmo is such an entitled tool …

This comment has been flagged by the community. Click here to show it.

LostInLoDOS (profile) says:

Re: Re: No problem

I have nothing to worry about. As long as the current racist genocidal dictator that rules over Ukraine is in power, I will not step foot in that country.

I feel for the people: their government brought this devastation upon them. They didn’t ask for it. Pre war polls showed an overwhelming support to release those eastern provinces to Russia or full independence separately.

But I will not visit a dictatorship that has committed acts of extreme aggression against its own citizens. Russian and Gypsum minorities have been imprisoned with no evidence of crime, kidnapped, and sometimes murdered in the street.

No. There is no chance I’d support such a regime with my hard earned money.

Anonymous Coward says:

Re: Re: Re:

No one’s saying those crimes don’t exist.

That shit’s par for the course in that particular region. (Yes, I know someone who lives in that particular region.)

Again, you miss the forest for the trees. And sadly, it’s rather unsurprising considering how you continue to defend voting against your interests.

LostInLoDOS (profile) says:

Re: Re: Re:2

Yes, I know someone who lives in that particular region

Finally someone says something logical. So do I, who luckily escaped the region with their family a few years ago.

Russia’s push further is abhorrent. And whatever moral support he had is gone. But that doesn’t change the cause of the situation. Blackout convoys of jeeps storming through the streets in the middle of the night. People going to work and never coming home.
The madness and terror was real.
Now the whole country suffers.

Anonymous Coward says:

Re: Re: Re:3

Finally someone says something logical.

It’s a shame that you seem to only read what you want to read.

So I’ll make it very fucking clear

I don’t care about your personal beefs or opinions. You’ve made your selfishness, support for an insurrectionist, and related nonsense (especially the Reddit strikes) extremely clear.

Elon sucks up to Trump, Xi, Putin, Modi and other dictators and authorititans on the regular, to the point where it’s evedent he’s interefered with Ukranian operations, presumably for Putin. And for that alone, he is not welcome in Ukraine.

Here’s the evidence in the article you selectively read.

In Ukraine, some fears have been realized. Mr. Musk has restricted Starlink access multiple times during the war, people familiar with the situation said. At one point, he denied the Ukrainian military’s request to turn on Starlink near Crimea, the Russian-controlled territory, affecting battlefield strategy. Last year, he publicly floated a “peace plan” for the war that seemed aligned with Russian interests.

And the warcrimes and related atrocities? Not to put a fine point to it, but when racism is legitimately a morning greeting in the Balkans, the atrocities are sure to follow. I do not say this to feed into your worldview, but as a statement of fact backed with at least some verification.

Claim whatever you want. It is my hope the UN will prosecute both sides for war crimes, and we have actual evidence for both sides that such things are happening.

It still doesn’t change the fact that Elon has ran intereference, presumably for Putin. Or that your opinions on Ukraine matter at all here.

Facts, like how Elon has interefered with Ukrainian access to Starlink, Do Not Give A Single Flying Fuck About Your Feelings Or Opinions.

LostInLoDOS (profile) says:

Re: Re: Re:4

I didn’t imply you cared about me. I didn’t expect you too.
But you’re the first person to acknowledge reality, not pure nonsense.
I supported willing annexation, not a war.
There’s a difference.

As for Musk. I simply don’t care. The less U.S. involvement the better. It’s not our war and not a concern for us. Ukraine has no business joining nato during a war. The only reason supporting that is the archaic US religious crusade against anything agnostic.

Be careful how you approach war crimes though. The U.S. has a long line of them to answer for too. Like direct support for the purging in Cambodia and Laos. I doubt anyone would be following up with Ukraine on that aspect.
How about those illegal mines we supplied to Ukraine. Doubt anyone is going to touch that.

But none of this would be happening now if we, the west, had supported freedom and democracy.
We had a chance to help broker a peaceful redrawing of lines of possession. That would have made everyone happy. Instead we turned a blind eye to genocide, again, and supplied weapons to yet another draconian dictator.

Anonymous Coward says:

Re: Re: Re:5

I supported willing annexation, not a war.

My contact doesn’t believe in that “willing annexation” bullshit, sadly, and I’m more willing to trust them over a proud Trumpist.

Russia simply did the same fucking thing the US did.

Be careful how you approach war crimes though.

As long as there are at least 3 humans, an assassin will find work. As long as people exist, atrocities, war crimes and the like will follow. The laws are there to at least keep the powers in check, ideally.

And if not, well… we’re all fucked and it’s time to considered alternatives.

Just a reminder, that includes you, despite your denial of reality until it directly affects you. And even then, your defense of supporting an insurrectionist ex-president is more telling than your speech.

But none of this would be happening now if we, the west, had supported freedom and democracy.

America has made its bed and it has to lie in it. Same with you.

Mind you, you think Trump did good despite Trump basically forcing the world into a bipolar reality, where China gets to blackmail, coerce and threaten OPENLY and economic realities force countries to accept China’s dictatorship.

The last thing you want to do is to lecture non-Americans on how America is bad.

WE FUCKING LIVE IN THE CONSEQUENCES. SOMETHING YOU CLEARLY DON’T CARE ABOUT UNTIL IT’S TOO LATE.

I’ll see YOU in Hell once the rest of us are dead and you’re next on the firing line.

LostInLoDOS (profile) says:

Re: Re: Re:6

See, bipolar? No. A triangle. Interconnected but individual.
See, where many dems and republicans a both pushed the with us or against us idea: Trump, as a pure bread business cutthroat, knew reality.
You are with us
Against us
Or simply don’t care.

Another fact he pushed on? Sanctions never work. They don’t have any effect on a government. The only people sanctions affect are those living in a targeted country.
We have no reason to sanction Russia. They are not threatening us, or NATO.
No, it’s because rich people at the top of both parties want to protect their investment. Ukrain is nothing more than the very state WE, the U.S., created years ago when we deposed And overthrew a legitimate election and inserted our own choice.

I’m surprised you don’t support the Trump presidency.
He was the most anti-global president we had in a very long time.
And it’s about time America stuck to its own 3-state mess. And stopped involving itself in other countries’ affairs.
Negotiate where we can for peace, but not supply funds or weapons, or, especially, troupers.

We need to mind our business, not involve ourselves in other’s conflicts.

Anonymous Coward says:

Re: Re: Re:7

I’m surprised you don’t support the Trump presidency.

I was never American, and again…

Trump’s entire 4 years spoke for himself. And the white supremacy he allied with, which has completely fucked many countries.

At least admit that you’re supporting a dangerous individual that has used violence to get what he wanted, proving that the only way to be democratic involves violence at a bare minimum, and emboldening other, less schizophrenic powers to do worse to carve out their fiefdoms.

Not all of BestNetTech’s readers live in the US, and some of us ** have to deal with the fucking fallout of American fuckshittery**. ie, China’s belligerence and Russia actually threatening to first strike nukes.

WE ARE MORE THAN FUCKING AWARE AND THE MORALIST ARGUMENT AND FRANKLY CHILDISH ATTEMPTS AT TELLING ME WHAT I KNOW AND EXPERIENCE FIRSTHAND IS ENRAGING, XOMING FROM SOMEONE WHO SUPPORTS TRUMP.

LostInLoDOS (profile) says:

Re: Re: Re:8

I was never American

I got that. That was my point. Trump did more than any president alive through the lives of most readers here to pull back the American international machine.
Non-US talk much of U.S. influence and intervention. Trump actually drew back.

The very things Trump tried to do are why I not only voted for Obama but worked as a volunteer for both his campaigns. Reduced International involvement, passionate speeches of boarder security. Closing bases. Less involvement in foreign wars.
Sadly by his second term he got caught up in money and lifestyle and chose to jump all in with the global elite group.

Trump actually did what he said he would. He built a wall. (Dem judges are the reason it wasn’t finished). He pushed energy dependence (Dem judges and Biden tore it apart). He reduced overpaying in nato and gave a point blank ultimatum of put up or or we’re out.
He drew and end to the Afghan war. Further normalised relation with the Thai-Viet region.
Attempted realistic negotiations with North Korea.
Reorganised trade with China (gutted after he left office).

Most importantly, he put into action the idea of less American meddling

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